Hours invested
Spent
Revenue at 90 days
Status
idea.reports[].location · .started · .hours · .spent · .revenue_90d · .status
Variant
idea.title
idea.offer
/100
Confidence
idea.appraisal.score · .confidence
Data labelsLABELS (sourced | modeled | observed) · SOURCES registry
If you remember three things
-
idea.takeaways[].kind · .headline · .detail · .evidence · .provenance
Who this idea suits
The same idea is a great fit for one person and a grind for another. Tap the lines that describe you.
Archetypeidea.persona.archetype
A good fit if you…
Probably not for you if you…
.
idea.persona.good_fit[].text · .kind · .market_linked · idea.persona.not_for[] · idea.persona.provenanceTest it in days for under $
Run this before buying equipment. If it misses the pass line, a bigger version probably will too.
Estimated spendBudget
Costs ·
idea.test.steps[].text · .cost · idea.test.budget_max
Pass criteria
Missed it? Rework the offer or the channel before spending more.
idea.test.pass_criteria
How the score was reached
First a gate: customers have to be buying something real, and you have to be willing to sell it. Then ten weighted criteria, each linked to its evidence further down.
Step 1 · Gate
What customers are really buying
People pay for four things: time, money, status, and peace of mind or approval. An idea has to deliver at least one of them strongly.
idea.selling_point.headline · .primary_driver
Search evidence:
Gate rule: . Failing it is a veto, whatever the score.
Step 2 · Score
Ten weighted criteria
Total/100idea.scorecard.total
Veto flagsidea.scorecard.veto_flags[]
Gateidea.selling_point.gate.passes
Weakest areaidea.scorecard.weakest
Criterion
Weight
12345
Score
Veto threshold: 2Weights sum to 100Vetoes: any score below 2, or a failed gateidea.scorecard.criteria[].label · .score · .weight · .label_hint · .aspirin_for · .evidence · idea.scorecard.veto_threshold
Where most operators land by month 12
Median net profit is for operators still running at month 12. About of people who start have quit by then. The featured guest sits in the outlier band, of starters.
Monthly net profit at month 12
Share of everyone who starts, including those who quit
idea.outcomes.provenance.{label, source[]}idea.outcomes.distributionidea.outcomes.quit_shareidea.outcomes.median_netidea.outcomes.bands[]idea.outcomes.guest.*
Quit / $0 ·
·
Quit
$0
$0
Median
What needs to go right
Exceeds side-hustle hoursmore than 15 hrs/wkBand
Net/mo
Jobs × ticket
What had to go right
Hours/wk
Exceeds side-hustle hours
idea.outcomes.bands[].label · .range · .jobs · .needs · .hours · .exceeds_side_hustle
I tried this
Results from readers who ran this idea. Self-reported.
No reader outcomes yet — this appraisal is modeled.
Reader reports move this appraisal’s data label from Modeled toward Observed.
idea.reports[] (length 0 → empty state)Too few reports to replace the model
Check your cityComing soon
See demand, competitors and the season for your metro, plus less crowded markets nearby. Until then, this section shows national data.
No match in the sample data. Try Seattle, Tacoma or Index.
Try
Low dataNot enough search data for Index, WA — showing nearest metro: Seattle metro.
idea.demand.metro ← market lookup (city → metro, low_data flag)Online idea: customers can buy from anywhere, so demand is shown nationally and there is no city lookup.
What the work pays one person
After materials, fuel and the time spent quoting and driving, a solo operator in the typical band clears about .
jobs a month at a average ticketidea.economics.jobs_for_target · .provenance.jobs_for_target
Adjusted rateat the typical band, all hours countedidea.economics.adjusted_hourly · .provenance.adjusted_hourly
Margin assumptionsolo, no crew or subcontractorsidea.economics.margin · .provenance.margin
Solo income calculator
$150$500
Jobs per month
Hours per week
Tiles and calculator · ·
Add-ons that reuse your customers and gear
Related ideas are alternatives. These are add-ons: services you can sell to the same customers to fill the off-season and raise the ticket.
Season coverage
Months with steady demand, for pressure washing plus the add-ons in your plan
Peak demandShoulderSlow
Combined
idea.expansions.core_season[12]idea.expansions.items[].season[12]idea.expansions.season_provenance
Add-ons, ranked by fit
Add or remove one to see its effect on the season. Bundle uplift is modeled.
Sequence it
idea.expansions.items[].idea_ref · .fit · .overlap · .reuse · .extra_capital · .extra_hours · .uplift · .score
Cumulative profit over the first 12 months
Startup costs put everyone below zero on day one. The median operator is back to even around month .
Cumulative net profit, months 0–12
P10, P50 and P90 of modeled operators
idea.ramp.p10[13]idea.ramp.p50[13]idea.ramp.p90[13]idea.ramp.breakeven_month_p50idea.ramp.provenance
P10–P90 range
P50 (median)
P10 and P90
Why the guest’s result won’t transfer to most readers
The headline numbers restated as owner profit and hours, then the advantages behind them, and whether a typical reader starts with them.
Claims and adjustments
Claim
Adjusted
Why
idea.claims.rows[].claim · .adjusted · .why · idea.claims.provenance
. Adjusted figures follow the waterfall below.
From claimed revenue to owner pay
idea.claims.waterfall[].label · .value · .kindidea.claims.owner_hoursidea.claims.waterfall_provenance
Net ÷ owner hours≈ /hr
The episode gave no revenue figure to decode, so there is no claimed-versus-real chart for this idea.
Guest advantages
idea.transfer.advantages[].label · .status · idea.transfer.provenance
Guest’s metro× national demand-month seasonidea.transfer.guest_market.*
× national demand-month season · City check coming soonChange cityidea.demand.metro.demand_multiple · .season_months
Market row ·
Summary
idea.transfer.summary
Search demand over time
The data behind your market tiles: five years of customer searches, seasonality, and how many people are looking to start this business.
Customer demand trend
Customer searches (e.g., “”) · 5 years, indexed, 3-month average
.metro.trend[].national.trend[].air_date.customer_keyword_type
National
Seasonality
Monthly search index, 5-year average
idea.demand.metro.seasonality[12]idea.demand.national.seasonality[12]idea.demand.metro.peak_months
National pattern
Peak season
Peak
Operator intent
Searches for “” · 5 years
Saturation early warning: more people starting this business
.operator_trend[].operator_keyword.operator_lift
Keyword analysis
What people type into Google when they look for this work, how many search for it each month, and what advertisers pay for a click.
Search terms, by monthly volume
Volumes are rounded ranges, not exact countsSearch term
Searches a month
Cost per click
Ad competition
Cost per click is the average Google Ads bid for the term. A higher bid means advertisers expect each customer to be worth more.
idea.demand.national.keywords[] · .role · .range · .cpc · .competition
I tried this
Results from readers who ran this idea. Self-reported.
No reader outcomes yet — this appraisal is modeled.
Reader reports move this appraisal’s data label from Modeled toward Observed.
idea.reports[] (length 0 → empty state)Too few reports to replace the model
Hours invested
Spent
Revenue at 90 days
Status
idea.reports[].location · .started · .hours · .spent · .revenue_90d · .status
Episodes behind this appraisal
Stage describes the guest’s business when the episode aired: Proven (years of revenue), Early (first year), Brainstorm (idea discussed, not run).